Due to the slight increase in the profit of PVC in 2019 and the decline in hedging of some caustic soda Taiwan Taipei hotel, the overall chlor-alkali profit seems to have fallen only slightly Taiwan Taipei hotel. However, the decline in the profit of caustic soda continues, and there is no significant gap in the annual PVC balance sheet Taiwan Taipei hotel. Therefore, the probability of chlor-alkali gross profit will decline further in 2020 Taiwan Taipei hotel, which has reached a year-on-year low of nearly four years. Therefore Taiwan Taipei hotel, it may be necessary to consider in advance whether the low chlor-alkali gross profit will cause the profit adjustment of the chlor-alkali industry to reduce production Taiwan Taipei hotel. Only reached in early 15th and early 16th, corresponding to the 15-year spring inspection volume and the 16-year spring inspection period was advanced but there was no significant volume increase. The number of relationship verifications was not enough, and it was only reflected in the spring inspection period. Can be verified outside the inspection period. Therefore, it is difficult to explain that the production reduction point of PVC is obvious. Ethylene has fallen rapidly in 2019.On the one hand, downstream ethylene derivatives such as styrene dragged down ethylene prices; on the other hand, it gradually ushered in a large year of ethane dehydrogenation production, especially from 2020, when the first year of ethane dehydrogenation production was formally put into operation. In large years, it may continue to increase the profit of ethylene-based PVC production, thereby prompting the operation rate of existing ethylene-based PVC units to remain high. Year of real estate completion: First of all, the traditional complete real estate delivery chain is: sales repayment-real estate investment-newly started area-construction area-completed area. Theoretically, the completion is the end, and the general completion growth lags behind the start of new construction by 1-2 years. However, the current round of lag is too long. The new construction area started to pick up in 2016, and the completion area was only increased at the end of this year. Seeing the rise, the lag time has been a full 3 years, or the real estate companies in the context of difficult funding sources, the situation is actually characterized by data review: the figure above the PVC output growth rate is approximately equal to the growth rate of PVC demand, and Comparison of various real estate indicators, the circle is the number of deviations. Characterizing that the growth rate of PVC demand is more in line with that of real estate sales that are one year ahead. The safe production or environmental suppression in 019 was a significant period of time before the 70th anniversary of the Qing dynasty. -The performance of the Northwest spread during this period is also slightly higher during the same period. After the end of the 70th anniversary of the 70th National Day, the start of supplementary construction of the toughness in the lower reaches of North China began in October-November.In 2020, there is currently no large time window for festivals with environmental swing estimates. The daily prediction of leading downstream indicators is placed on environmental quality weather warnings and the end of the year is also concerned about whether a warm winter will affect the seasonality of downstream North China.

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